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Brexit will shave another sliver off SA's already lean growth


The vote comes with implications for trade between Britain and its EU counterparts and other trading partners globally. British immigration laws could become stricter, while an increase in capital outflows from emerging-market economies is expected as risk-averse investors seek safe-haven investments.

At worst, Britain's exit from the EU could shave about 0.1% off South Africa's growth, a joint report from the North-West University School of Business and Governance and the TRADE research unit this week showed. The National Treasury, Reserve Bank and international ratings agencies expect South Africa's economy to grow well below 1% this year.

"With the EU currently South Africa's biggest trading partner, and the UK our second-biggest trading country in Europe after Germany, the South African GDP will most certainly be affected."

South Africa's current-account deficit widened to 5% of GDP in the first quarter, which would make a Brexit "all the more undesirable", said Ngqondoyi.

Trade between South Africa and the EU has been increasing over the past five years, with the value of trade growing from R151-billion to R216-billion as the exports of value-added products rose, according to the latest figures from the Department of Trade and Industry.

Markets that are at risk include agricultural produce, transport, equipment, food, beverages and other manufactured products.

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